As facilities lost capacity or became inaccessible, PHEOC responded to coverage gaps by moving patients across hospitals and governorates, redirecting ambulances away from saturated facilities, and extending the operating hours of primary healthcare centers. These measures did not restore normal service; they redistributed scarcity, concentrating more patients in the fewer facilities that remained functional.
Along with the infrastructure damage, the healthcare workforce itself has come under attack. Israeli strikes have targeted healthcare personnel with a directness that distinguishes this escalation from incidental wartime harm, killing a total of 376 health workers in the 2024 and 2026 conflicts. On March 13, a single strike on the Burj Qalaouiyah primary healthcare center killed 12 doctors, paramedics, and nurses on duty.
The attacks exacted a less visible toll, too. Research following the 2024 hostilities found that 18.4% of healthcare workers screened were at high risk of post-traumatic stress symptoms, with significantly higher rates among nurses and those directly exposed to the war. The 2026 escalation has added a further layer of trauma, compounded by displacement. Healthcare workers have been forced to leave conflict-affected communities, creating a structural mismatch between where staff are located and where they are needed. Some facilities remained open only because workers chose to stay despite the danger.
The combined effects of attacks on supply routes, facility closures, and stockouts have constrained access to the medicines and supplies needed to treat patients, leaving a depleted workforce with fewer resources to provide care. These war-related pressures are compounded by a structural weakness: Lebanon imports around 95% of its pharmaceutical products, exposing the health system to shocks in global supply chains. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz following US-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February disrupted a key logistics corridor for roughly 80% of regional pharmaceutical imports. The delivery costs of medical supplies into Lebanon tripled as a result. By mid-April, 9% of chronic disease medicines were out of stock nationwide, while another 26% had less than three months’ supply remaining.
These accumulated pressures left the healthcare system with little capacity to absorb mass-casualty events — none more severe than on April 8, the day Lebanon would come to call “Black Wednesday.” In the space of 10 minutes, Israel launched more than 100 strikes across the country, hitting Beirut, the Bekaa Valley, Sidon, and Tyre without warning in the middle of the day. At least 357 people were killed and more than 1,200 injured, as major hospitals were inundated with casualties. Trauma kits, containing essential medicines, surgical supplies, and equipment for treating severe injuries, which normally last for three weeks were depleted in a single day, and the destruction of access routes made it harder to replenish supplies.
Continuity of Care and the Conditions for Return
Disruptions along the chain of care compound one another, producing preventable deaths from delayed or obstructed care. For those with severe injuries, delays in evacuation and treatment are directly associated with higher mortality and complication rates, particularly where clinical outcome windows are narrow. Attacks on healthcare have systematically extended that interval across the south. During Israeli bombardment, patients, including children, arrived with heavy bleeding, traumatic amputations, and complex wounds at facilities already overwhelmed by surge conditions that mass-casualty protocols alone could not address.
A second category of harm accumulates over the medium term, among patients with chronic and life-sustaining needs. For dialysis or cancer patients, treatment delays of even a few days or weeks can worsen their prognosis in ways that are difficult to reverse. Even when patients were transferred further north to resume treatment, the additional cost and distance put continuity of care out of reach for many.
Official casualty counts fail to capture deaths caused by degradation of the health system, but that does not mean indirect casualties are unmeasurable. Research published in The Lancet estimates that in recent conflicts such as the Gaza war, indirect deaths resulting from the collapse of healthcare can range from 3 to 15 times the number of direct deaths. These projections are not specific to Lebanon but reflect a historical range observed in other armed conflicts. What gives them analytical weight is that the pattern behind them is neither incidental nor unprecedented: Israeli officials openly modeled their Lebanon operations on Gaza, a targeting logic whose consequences will take years to measure.
Beyond its impact on mortality, the degradation of healthcare services affects whether civilian return to the south is viable. Return depends on the basic conditions required to sustain daily life: access to food, water, shelter, electricity, and functioning medical care when illness or injury occurs. PHEOC officials linked the destruction of health infrastructure directly to displacement, arguing that without accessible emergency and essential care, civilians face greater pressure to leave. The same reasoning applies to return: where hospitals remain open and accessible, they signal that life can be sustained and encourage people to come back. Where they are closed, damaged, or unreachable, the absence of health services can weigh on decisions about whether to return.
Primary healthcare centers are part of the wider infrastructure that supports durable return. They provide the routine consultations, medicines, and referral functions that allow communities to manage health needs close to home. Restoring them is a necessary but insufficient condition: return also depends on roads, water, electricity, housing, and the specialist services that primary care cannot substitute. The degree to which those systems have been destroyed determines the timeline and feasibility of return for those with acute health needs.
Israel has formalized this logic spatially. The so-called Yellow Line buffer zone, designated as a closed military zone in April, encompasses 55 villages south of the Litani River that have seen mass destruction of civilian infrastructure. This no-return zone is where healthcare infrastructure has been most systematically destroyed, alongside other vital resources sustaining life. Elsewhere in the south, where return was at least physically possible, the picture was hardly better. The Norwegian Refugee Council found that the April 17 ceasefire deepened displacement instead of reversing it: families who returned found their homes damaged and their villages without essential services, forcing them to leave again.
The Wider Cost
The attacks on healthcare in southern Lebanon have taken the chain of care apart, layer by layer, over successive rounds of conflict, undermining the conditions by which civilian life can be sustained. As such, Israeli actions in South Lebanon are part of a concerning wider international trend in which the protections afforded to medical care under IHL are being eroded, from Gaza and Syria to Sudan and Ukraine. If violations of this kind continue in one particular war, the legal framework meant to protect civilians in conflict is undermined everywhere.
The full scope of the destruction in Lebanon cannot be measured by casualty figures alone and may only emerge over time — in preventable deaths when people cannot get timely medical care, in the worsening health of patients with chronic illnesses, and in prolonged displacement where essential healthcare services remain inaccessible. The destruction of healthcare is therefore not a tangential consequence of the conflict: it has become an intentional theatre for prosecuting the war, one in which Israel seeks to eliminate the possibility of civilian return and survival in the areas its forces are occupying. Until the chain of care is restored as a functioning whole, the war’s effects will continue beyond the end of active hostilities, shaping not just who survives, but who gets to come home and stay.
With many thanks to Hisham Jaber, Research Manager and Health Policy Advisor, and Michael El Kassis, Senior Research Analyst, for their invaluable insights, analysis, and conducting of interviews as part of this piece.
Salma Daoudi is a Non-Resident Fellow at Badil | The Alternative Policy Institute