Lebanon is once again on the edge of political and social disintegration, and this time, the threat may come from within. When one faction claims monopoly over legitimate resistance while another insists on the state’s exclusive right to arms, Lebanon becomes a battlefield of competing sovereignties. These irreconcilable positions are not just ideological; they are sectarian timebombs. The danger is no longer abstract. As Hezbollah’s leaders warn that internal opponents “will be confronted… just as we have confronted Israel,” political disagreement veers dangerously close to becoming a security threat.
In the months since the devastating Hezbollah-Israel war ended in a tenuous ceasefire, Lebanon has once again found itself on the edge of political and social disintegration. The agreement, accepted by all sides, including Hezbollah and brokered by Speaker Nabih Berri, a longtime ally of the group, was clear in its intent: the disarmament of Hezbollah, starting from south of the Litani River. And yet, the group’s leadership has backtracked, clouding clarity with contradiction and raising the specter of renewed instability.
Secretary General Naim Qassem’s recent speeches paint a defiant picture of Hezbollah’s posture. His message is unmistakable: the group has no intention of disarming under current circumstances. He insists, repeatedly, that “the resistance is necessary,” that “resistance works,” and that Hezbollah’s very existence is inseparable from Lebanon’s sovereignty. But in asserting that disarmament is not only premature but unacceptable, Qassem directly rebuffs the very ceasefire terms his organization endorsed.